When will you actually retire?

The 4% rule, in plain English

The Trinity Study (1998, updated since) looked at every 30-year retirement window in the 20th century. The finding: a portfolio of 50 to 75% stocks could safely fund withdrawals of about 4% of the starting balance, adjusted for inflation, without running out.

Flip the math. If you need $60,000 a year, your portfolio number is 60,000 ÷ 0.04 = $1.5M. That's your retirement target. Annual spend × 25.

The number that actually matters: your savings rate

Mr Money Mustache published a table in 2012 that landed like a hammer. Save 10% of your income, you retire in 51 years. Save 25%, 32 years. Save 50%, 17 years. Save 75%, just 7 years.

What's striking is what's missing. The table assumes the same 5% real return for everyone. The variable doing the work is savings rate. Investment performance barely budges the line. The market won't retire you. You will.

How to calculate your retirement date

Worked example. Current savings: $200,000. Weekly contributions: $1,000 ($52,000/year). Target annual spend: $60,000. Portfolio target: $1.5M. Expected real return: 5%.

Run the compound interest math. At those inputs, you cross $1.5M in about 14.5 years. Now bump the contribution to $1,200/week. The date pulls in to about 12.5 years. Two years off the calendar for $200 a week. The leverage is real.

Super, IRA, 401(k), and brokerage. The buckets matter

Two parts to retirement money: how much you have, and when you can touch it. Tax-advantaged accounts (super, 401(k), IRA) often lock the money until 60+. A standard brokerage account doesn't.

If you want to retire early, you need a bridge: enough in non-locked accounts to get from your retirement date to the day the locked money becomes available. Most people overweight the locked buckets and underweight the bridge.

Spend less or earn more. The market won't retire you. You will.

The Australian version: super preservation age and the bridge problem

In Australia, super is locked until preservation age (currently 60 for most). Concessional super contributions are taxed at 15%, which beats the top marginal rate but locks the cash up. The bridge problem: if you want to stop working at 50, you need ten years of spend in a non-super account.

A rough split that works for most: max your concessional super contributions to capture the tax break, then everything else goes to a brokerage account for the bridge. ETFs, low fees, set and forget.

Try the calculator

Enter your savings, your weekly contribution, and your target annual spend. See your retirement year. Then play with the inputs: more savings, less spend, an extra year of work. The year moves more than you'd think.